“Support my agreement or I’m leaving”. In essence, this is the message of the British Prime Minister Theresa May to parliamentarians and especially to his own conservative camp, some of which remains hostile to its Brexit agreement.
Her “deal” may have been rejected twice by parliamentarians, Theresa May still believes in the possibility of a third deciding vote. But what will it be different? For the time being the number of supporters in the House remains insufficient.
One last move and then leave?
The Prime Minister is therefore trying a last political blow by putting her resignation in the balance. In a statement, she said “know the desire there is for a new approach and a new leadership in the second phase of negotiations that will start with Brussels”, if the Brexit is postponed to a later date.
But the outcome of these negotiations remains very uncertain. Not sure that Brussels is ready to review its copy again, Jean-Claude Juncker having spoken of a unique “second chance” for the United Kingdom, when modifications had been made, after the first rejection of the “deal” by British parliamentarians.
These modifications included the “backstop”, this “temporary” solution chosen to avoid the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the United Kingdom) and the Republic of Ireland (which remains a member EU).
It remains to convince the ten parliamentarians of the party of Northern Ireland, for which this agreement still disintegrates somehow Northern Ireland, which would be aligned with the rules of the EU, the rest of the United Kingdom.
Never two without three ?
Will Theresa May be able to submit her agreement to Westminster for a third vote?
Earlier this week, the House regained control of the legislative process; by submitting to the vote 8 alternatives, among which: a customs union with the EU, a second referendum or an exit from the EU without agreement.
But none has gathered the necessary number of supports. In summary, no solution is good enough.
One of these options, however, failed to be approved. 264 deputies, including a majority of Labor but also some conservatives, approved the idea of a customs union with the European Union, which would be created after Brexit.
But the no has prevailed. A failure for the parliamentarians that makes say to the government of Theresa May that the only “good” agreement remains his.
What will happen now?
If Theresa May succeeds in passing her agreement, the United Kingdom would leave the Union on May 22nd.
If it fails, April 12, the divorce would be brutal, without agreement. Unless London is asking for a long report of Brexit …
With the key, most likely, new elections, a new leader … and new negotiations … The way would be still long.